Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator
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It’s wise to know the risks of losing set amounts of money when playing Blackjack games. The more you know about the risks you are taking at the table, the easier it is to control the amount you can potentially lose (or hopefully win) from one session to the next. This article will cover the basics of the “risk of ruin” in Blackjack to help you understand how you can minimize, or increase, the risk involved the next time you sit down at the Blackjack table.
What is risk of ruin?
Risk of ruin is the percentage likelihood of losing a set amount of money over a specific number of hands at the Blackjack table. Ruin is just a way of saying “going broke”. For example, if you decided to take a $100 bankroll and bet $1 on each hand for 100 hands, your risk of ruin would be 0.5% (or a 1 in 200 chance of going broke).
Shop our great selection of video games, consoles and accessories for Xbox One, PS4, Wii U, Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, PS Vita, 3DS and more. New casino players will Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculatorreceive a free real cash bonus whenever they play at a casino for real money. Casinos usually give out bonuses in the form of deposit matches usually. That means a certain percentage of your deposit is. This is the trip ruin formula in Blackjack Attackpage 132. Is still calculated, but for a specified number of hands. The risk is lower than with the calculator with no time constraint since you have a quit point. Risk Of Ruin Blackjack Calculator. Risk of ruin blackjack calculator Here, risk of ruin is defined as the probability.Learn how much money is needed to make money with card counting and how many betting units are recommended for your blackjack bankroll to keep risk low?Bankroll Blackjack Calculator bankroll blackjack calculator Bankroll Blackjack Calculator bankroll blackjack calculator But.
I’ll show you how I worked this out in a moment.
Why learn about the risk of ruin?
Risk of ruin is perfect if:
- You want to stay in control of risk as much as possible.
- You want to know the varying risk for different bet sizes and number of hands.
- You want to clear bonus play-through requirements as quickly but as safely as possible.
Almost every gambler takes risk of ruin in to account when they place their bets, providing that they are sober of course. This article is simply going to help you put some numbers to that intuition.
The Blackjack risk of ruin table.
- The risk of ruin column is on the left.
- The number of hands row goes along the top.
- The centre numbers show the number of betting units. (Don’t worry; I’ll explain all of this very soon.)
Risk of Ruin Blackjack Charts
| Risk of Ruin | Number of Hands to Play | ||||||||
| 100 | 200 | 300 | 400 | 500 | 600 | 700 | 800 | 900 | |
| 50% | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 25 |
| 40% | 9 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
| 30% | 12 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 36 | 38 |
| 20% | 15 | 21 | 26 | 31 | 34 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 |
| 10% | 19 | 27 | 34 | 39 | 44 | 48 | 53 | 57 | 60 |
| 5% | 22 | 32 | 40 | 46 | 52 | 58 | 62 | 67 | 71 |
| 4% | 23 | 34 | 42 | 49 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 75 |
| 3% | 25 | 36 | 44 | 51 | 58 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 79 |
| 2% | 27 | 38 | 47 | 55 | 62 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 84 |
| 1% | 29 | 42 | 52 | 61 | 68 | 75 | 82 | 88 | 93 |
| 0.5% | 32 | 46 | 57 | 66 | 74 | 82 | 89 | 95 | 101 |
| 0.25% | 35 | 50 | 61 | 71 | 80 | 88 | 96 | 102 | 109 |
| 0.1% | 38 | 54 | 67 | 77 | 87 | 95 | 104 | 111 | 118 |
| 0.01% | 45 | 64 | 79 | 91 | 102 | 112 | 122 | 131 | 139 |
| Risk of Ruin | Number of Hands to Play | ||||||||
| 1000 | 1200 | 1400 | 1600 | 1800 | 2000 | 2500 | 3000 | ||
| 50% | 27 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 37 | 40 | 45 | 50 | |
| 40% | 33 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 46 | 49 | 56 | 62 | |
| 30% | 41 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 56 | 60 | 68 | 75 | |
| 20% | 50 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 69 | 73 | 83 | 92 | |
| 10% | 64 | 70 | 76 | 82 | 88 | 93 | 105 | 116 | |
| 5% | 76 | 83 | 90 | 97 | 104 | 110 | 124 | 137 | |
| 4% | 79 | 87 | 95 | 102 | 108 | 114 | 129 | 143 | |
| 3% | 83 | 92 | 100 | 107 | 114 | 121 | 136 | 151 | |
| 2% | 89 | 98 | 107 | 114 | 122 | 129 | 145 | 161 | |
| 1% | 99 | 108 | 118 | 126 | 134 | 142 | 160 | 177 | |
| 0.5% | 107 | 118 | 128 | 137 | 146 | 154 | 174 | 192 | |
| 0.25% | 115 | 126 | 137 | 147 | 156 | 166 | 187 | 206 | |
| 0.1% | 125 | 138 | 149 | 160 | 170 | 180 | 202 | 223 | |
| 0.01% | 148 | 162 | 175 | 188 | 198 | 212 | 236 | 261 | |
Both risk of ruin tables were originally published on the Wizard of Odds blackjack risk of ruin article.
The 3 variables involved with risk of ruin in Blackjack.
Whenever you work out risk of ruin in Blackjack, there are 3 variables you need to consider.
1. The number of betting units (this is just your bankroll divided by bet size).
2. The set number of hands to be played.
3. The risk of ruin.
As long as you know at least 2, any 1 of the 3 remaining variables can be worked out using the table above.
Example 1: Working out your risk of ruin.
Let’s say that you have a $200 bankroll and you want to play 300 hands whilst betting $5 on each hand. You now decide that you want to work out your risk of ruin for this session.
By betting $5 on each hand with our $200 bankroll, we have 40 betting units in total ($200 / $5). Now we have 2 our variables, we can figure out our risk of ruin from the table.
Firstly we look across the top row to find the number of hands we wish to play (300, remember?). We then look down this column to find the betting units closest to 40. Luckily 40 is perfectly set in the table there already, so we can look across to the left to the risk of ruin column and see that our risk of ruin for this session will be 5%.
Easy stuff really. All you need to know is 2 variables/numbers from the table and you can work out your risk of ruin, the number of hands you should play or the number of betting units required.
Example 2: Working out your ideal betting units.
A more probable situation is where you want to control your risk of ruin before you play. So for example, let’s say you have a $1000 bankroll and you want your risk of ruin to be 1% over 500 hands. How big should your bets be?
If we look at 500 hands and the 1% risk of ruin on the table, it tells us that we should have 68 betting units behind us to achieve these figures. So what’s 68 betting units from $1000?
Easy, just divide $1000 by 68 and we get $14 (or $14.7 to be precise). Therefore to play 500 hands with just a 1% risk of ruin, we should only bet $14 on each hand we play.
Evaluation of risk of ruin in Blackjack.
Risk of ruin applies to all forms of gambling, whether it’s; Sports Betting, Texas Hold’em Poker, Bingo or Casino games like Blackjack (of course).
Even though we all subconsciously work out rough ideas of the risk of ruin in our heads, it’s far better to have solid numbers to work with so that we can be more precise with the money we are putting at risk. The last thing any of us want is to be surprised by losses that we never could have expected.
I realise that I’ve left out an example for working out how many hands you should play if you have a risk of ruin in mind and have already worked out your ideal betting units, but it should be fairly easy to figure out if you understood the first two examples.
The mathematics involved with risk of ruin may look a little intimidating at first, but trust me when I say that it’s so much easier than it looks if you spend a little time working with it.
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CVCX Online consists of the sim Viewers and 12 calculators as follows:
CVCX Online Data Viewer
150,000 2,000,000,000 round sims with different combinations ofdecks, rules and strategies reside on the CVCX Online server. Theviewer can be used to look at the sim results. For each sim, youcan change the spread, risk and other variables and results alongwith the optimal betting ramp for your settings will be instantlydisplayed. Full CVCX functionality (reports, charts, simulation,custom bets, etc) cannot be made available due to Web limitations.But, I believe the data most commonly used is available. Click Launchto invoke the viewer. For more info on CVCX, see CVCXPages. |
CVCX Online Chart Viewer
21,000 graphs with different combinations of decks, rules andstrategies also reside on the CVCX Online server. You can changethe strategy, decks, rules and spread and charts can be displayedof SCORE, Advantage and N0 for all reasable penetrations assumingoptimal betting at a risk of ruin of 13.5%. About 4,000,000 datapoints have been plotted. This is a tiny fraction of all possible siuations; but should provide a good view of the effect of variousvariables on performance. Click Launch to invoke the viewer. Sorry,this function is only available to CVCX users. |
Calculators
Twelve Blackjack calculators can be found below to answer various 'whatif' questions. Win Rates and Standard Deviations used in these calculatorscan be found in the CVCX Online Viewer. Most of the methodologies usedare either in or based on formulae in Don Schlesinger’s BlackjackAttack and page references are supplied below. Pick the desired calculatorand hit the Launch button.
Card Counting Calculator
Risk |
| Risk given no goal and no timeconstraint - This is the Simple Risk of Ruin formula onBlackjack Attack page 112. The result is the risk of ruin withno limit on the number of hands and no quit point. Simply set thebankroll. |
| Risk given no goal but a timeconstraint - This is the trip ruin formula in BlackjackAttack page 132. Risk is still calculated, but for a specifiednumber of hands. The risk is lower than with the above calculatorsince you have a quit point. |
| Risk given a goal and timeconstraint - This is called a double barrier formula andis found on Blackjack Attack page 137. We are calculating therisk of bankruptcy before hitting a goal or playing a number of hands.Here, you set a point at which you will stop playing. The risk islower than the above calculator since you will stop playing if youhit one of two quit points: Time or Goal. |
| Risk given a goal and no timeconstraint - This is a modification of the above with thenumber of hands removed. It can be found on Blackjack Attackpage 139. Here you quit if you hit a goal, but there is no limit onnumber of hands. |
Goal |
| Probability of reaching a goalbefore going bankrupt given a time constraint - This formulais found on Blackjack Attack page 136. Here you specify themaximum number of hands you will play, a bankroll and a goal. Theresult is the probability of reaching that goal before going bankruptor hitting the specified number of hands. |
| Probability of reaching a goalbefore going bankrupt with no time constraint - This formulais found on Blackjack Attack page 138. This is the same asthe above calculator except that there can be an unlimited numberof hands. Therefore, the probability of reaching the goal is a littlehigher. |
Results |
| Range of Probable Results- Here, you specify the number of hands you will play and a probabilityand the range of your results is calculated. For example, if you specify95%, and the answer is -664 to 1346, then 95% of the time your winningswill be somewhere between -664 and 1,346 units. The higher the percentthat you specify, the wider the range. |
| What results can I expect giventime and probability of reaching goal without ruin - Thisis the formula on page 137 solved for goal. Your probable resultsare calculated. You must give a probability. For example, if you specify98%, you will hit the calculated goal 98% of the time without goingbankrupt within the specified number of hands. |
Actual |
| Probability of your actualresults - Here you can enter the actual casino resultsfrom a trip to see how far you were from the expected results. Setthe number of hands played and how much you won or lost. If the answeris 50%, you won the amount that you should expect. If you won morethan you expected, the answer will be the percentage of times thatyou should expect at least that result. |
Bankroll |
| What is the required bankrollgiven a goal and time constraint - How much do you needto avoid bankruptcy? This is the formula on page 137 solved for bankroll.Here, you enter the number of hands you will play on a trip, yourgoal and the desired probability of reaching that goal. The requiredbankroll is calculated. |
| What is the required bankrollgiven a goal and no time constraint - How much do you needto avoid bankruptcy? This is the formula on page 139 solved for bankroll.This is the same as the above calculator, except there is no limiton the number of hands played. |
Time |
| Hands required given goal anddesired probability - This is the formula on page 137 solvedfor time. Here, you calculate the needed number of hands. |